The San Francisco highrise condo market forecast for Fall 2025 looks promising, with improving conditions for both buyers and sellers.
As we look at current trends and economic indicators, the SF real estate market is setting up for one of the strongest fall seasons we’ve seen in recent years. This momentum comes from favorable economic conditions, an explosive AI boom, and tightening inventory levels across premier highrise buildings.
Macroeconomic Trends Driving the SF Housing Market
Fall 2025 is shaping up to be a solid market, with homebuyers potentially in their best position of the year as the season unfolds. Mortgage rates recently fell to their lowest levels year-to-date, hovering around 6.5% for 30-year fixed mortgages (and SF homebuyers tend to get better rates due to banking relationships, jumbo loans, and other factors). This represents a significant improvement from earlier this year and gives top SF condo agents renewed optimism about buyer activity.
Stock markets are hitting new record highs, which is great news for homebuying budgets here in SF real estate. Our market is heavily influenced by stock performance, and the S&P 500 climbed to 6,501.86 points in late August, marking record-high closes for consecutive days. Tech stocks in particular are driving this recent growth, which directly benefits San Francisco’s wealth-dependent luxury condo market.
This combination of lower borrowing costs and increased wealth from portfolio gains creates perfect conditions for San Francisco highrise condo market activity. For buyers who have been waiting on the sidelines, these economic tailwinds present compelling reasons to enter the market before conditions potentially shift.
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The Local AI Boom Continues to Transform San Francisco Real Estate
Artificial intelligence is driving another tech boom, and San Francisco is at the center of it all. The city has always had its share of tech companies since the dot-com days, but the money pouring into artificial intelligence has supercharged the city’s tech profile. Last year, SF companies raised nearly $35 billion in venture capital funding. You can see the change everywhere: rents are climbing again, city buses are filling back up, and San Francisco is starting to look younger.
San Francisco has become the tech industry’s hub for artificial intelligence, creating unprecedented demand for highrise condos in San Francisco. Major AI firms like OpenAI and Anthropic have set up shop here, bringing top talent with substantial paychecks that directly impact the luxury housing market.
Buyers with significant investments are increasingly using this wealth to avoid tying up large sums of cash in down payments on properties. San Francisco’s residential rental market continues to heat up, with median apartment rents climbing by 11.5% in the 12 months ending in August. AI-fueled job growth, return-to-office mandates, and limited inventory are the key forces behind this surge, which may push fence-sitting homebuyers to finally act.
Areas like Mission Bay, Hayes Valley, and other local tech hubs are seeing high demand for commercial space, which typically increases demand for nearby homes. This AI industry explosion in the city, with dozens of new startups choosing San Francisco as their home base, has created a powerful magnet for people eager to participate in what might be the biggest technological revolution of our times. The network effect (the tremendous benefits of being within walking distance of each other) is driving both best real estate condo agents in San Francisco and their clients to focus on these emerging neighborhoods.
This has shifted the SF housing market into one of the strongest in the Bay Area, going against the cooling trends seen in most other counties nationwide. Unlike most other markets, the supply of latest SF highrise condos for sale is dropping, price reductions are declining, and home prices are starting to climb year-over-year.
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Market Data Shows a Strengthening San Francisco Condo Market
San Francisco condo prices are rising steadily. In the 12 months ending August 2025, the SF citywide median condo price was up 2.9% annually, with market weakness being replaced by real enthusiasm. In Mission Bay, one of the epicenters of new tech investment and homebuyer demand, the median condo price surged 22.9% annually in the same period.
(Note: all numbers are via SFARMLS agent-reported data.)
Despite this growth, there are still relative deals to be found for smart buyers working with best luxury condo Realtors. Mission Bay’s 12-month rolling median price peaked at $1,670,000 in September 2019, hit a 10-year low of $900,000 in July 2024, and has since been climbing rapidly to reach $1,168,000 as of August 2025.
Supply dynamics tell a compelling story of market transformation. Months of supply has been a wild ride, first shooting up dramatically during the early days of COVID, then falling just as fast when record-low mortgage rates created rare homebuying opportunities. Then inflation and higher rates caused the next spike in listing inventory, which peaked in mid-2024.
The past year has been one of energy and action in the market. New demand (increasing annual numbers of pending and sold homes) is outpacing new supply (falling annual numbers of new condo listings). Here are the key supply statistics that show the dramatic shifts:
- Peak supply (12-month rolling) was February 2021: 4.3 months SF county; 11.1 months Mission Bay
- Little more than a year later: 2.1 months SF county; 2.5 months Mission Bay (a dramatic turnaround)
- Supply peaked again in June 2024: 3 months SF county; 4.7 months Mission Bay
- Current supply as of August 2025: 2.6 months SF county; 2.4 months Mission Bay
What’s really interesting is that Mission Bay’s months of supply is now lower than SF citywide, showing exceptionally strong demand in this AI-driven neighborhood. For those considering property valuation or exploring property search options, these supply constraints suggest continued upward pressure on prices.
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What’s Next for the San Francisco Highrise Condo Market?
We can’t predict the future with certainty (our crystal ball is in the shop), but current trends point to growing demand and tightening supply of highrise condos and San Francisco real estate in general. This is especially true in areas where new AI investment is concentrated. The combination of favorable mortgage rates, record stock market performance, explosive venture capital funding, and constrained inventory creates a strong case for market strength heading into fall.
For prospective buyers, the window of opportunity may be narrowing as supply continues to tighten and prices accelerate. For sellers, the combination of strong demand and limited competition presents an advantageous environment for San Francisco real estate predictions to turn into successful transactions.
About Our San Francisco Highrise Condo Team
With over 20 years of experience in the San Francisco highrise condo market, Robyn Kaufman and the SFHIGHRISES.com team started our journey selling South Beach real estate as new home sales managers when developments like The Metropolitan were newly built. As the residential real estate market in SoMa took off, we continued to fine-tune our business model to focus specifically on buyers and sellers of new highrise condos in South Beach, Mission Bay, and surrounding neighborhoods.
Our clients trust us to provide personalized service and attentive guidance that ensures successful closings. In fact, 69% of our yearly sales comes from repeat business and client referrals. This speaks to our professional network and insider knowledge of the residential highrise condo market. We rank in the top 1.5% of real estate agents by sales volume nationwide and are recipients of the REALTRENDS America’s Best Realtor Award.
Ready to explore the San Francisco highrise condo market? Contact us today to discuss your real estate goals and how we can help. We look forward to speaking with you.
