Our 2026 San Francisco condo market forecast looks significantly different than the choppy waters we navigated over the last twelve months. If you have been following the headlines, you know the narrative around our city is shifting. We are seeing a distinct transition from a stabilization phase into what looks like a renewed cycle of growth, driven by a unique mix of local tech resurgence and improving national economics.
For clients of SFHIGHRISES.com, this shift presents strategic opportunities. Whether you are looking to acquire a luxury highrise unit or finally capitalize on your investment, the data points to a busy year ahead. Let’s dig into what the numbers are telling us.
What Is The Broader Economic Outlook For 2026?
The national backdrop for real estate is far more encouraging than it was a year ago. We are seeing mortgage rates stabilize in the low 6% range, with some forecasts suggesting they could dip toward 5.5% by midyear. While we aren’t returning to the near-zero rates of the pandemic era, this stability is allowing buyers to budget with confidence rather than fear.
For San Francisco buyers specifically, the picture is even brighter. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq have been hitting all-time highs, creating a “wealth effect” that directly fuels demand for luxury property here. When tech portfolios soar, down payments for San Francisco highrise condos often follow suit.
Nationally, the consensus among experts is optimistic. Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at NAR, projects home sales will jump 14% in 2026, with median prices rising modest 4%. However, real estate is hyper-local. While national figures give us a baseline, San Francisco often moves independently of the pack, and right now, our local engines are revving harder than the rest of the country.
Luxury highrise condo in The Metropolitan at 355 1st St
How Is The AI Boom Impacting San Francisco Real Estate?
San Francisco is officially the epicenter of the artificial intelligence boom, and that is reshaping our local housing market. While other Bay Area regions have seen price softness, San Francisco is outperforming with rising prices and the fastest pace of home sales among top US cities.
This residential demand is being fueled by a massive recovery in the commercial sector. 2025 was the best year for office leasing in the city since 2019, with AI companies accounting for over 80% of that newly leased space. Vacancy rates are dropping as major players like Sierra AI and Nvidia expand their footprints.
This influx of high-earning tech workers needs housing. We saw this reflected clearly in late 2025 data. By November, the 3-month rolling median price for a 2-bedroom condo surged to just under $1.3 million, its highest point since 2022 and a 6.5% jump year-over-year.
For those interested in investment potential, the rental market is signaling strength as well. San Francisco recently saw the highest rise in rental prices of any major US metro. This rising floor in rental values typically supports condo valuations, making it not a bad time to search for properties before prices climb further.
Views of Twin Peaks San Francisco
What Should Buyers And Sellers Do Right Now?
We are currently in the classic mid-winter seasonal lull. November and December typically see a contraction in listing activity, and the market doesn’t fully wake up until mid-January.
For buyers, this creates a temporary window of leverage. While inventory is tighter, December and January are often when you can negotiate most aggressively. Sellers remaining on the market during the holidays are often motivated, and you have less competition from other buyers. If you are ready to act, our buyers’ resources can help you prepare to make a move before the spring rush.
For prospective sellers, the strategy is preparation. The data suggests demand will build significantly as we head into spring 2026. With interest rates stabilizing and local confidence returning, well-priced and beautifully marketed homes are selling quickly, often over asking price. Now is the time to prep your unit to ensure it stands out. We recommend starting with a professional home valuation to understand where you stand in this shifting market.
SF highrise condo living
Work With the Best SF Condo Agent in 2026
The “doom loop” narrative is fading as the positive data takes over. With a thriving job market fueled by AI, improving commercial leasing numbers, and a stock market bolstering buyer wealth, 2026 is shaping up to be a strong year for San Francisco real estate.
Whether you are looking to explore specific San Francisco high-rise neighborhoods or want the inside track on the best buildings for condo buyers in the city, having an expert in your corner matters more than ever. The best real estate agents in San Francisco know how to navigate these micro-trends to your advantage.
If you are thinking about making a move this year, let’s connect. Contact us today and let’s discuss your strategy for 2026.
